The attacks from Russia, which are openly terrorist in nature, are intended to sow panic and demoralize.
Is a new offensive on Kharkiv possible? Recently, with the intensification of shelling of Kharkiv, messages about possible similar intentions of the Russian military leadership have become much more lively. Numerous media outlets are also talking about this. And if initially such messages were spread by Russian media, now the topic of increasing Russian terror against Kharkiv has also begun to spread in the media space in the West. The Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security and the Institute of Public Communications explain why this information is not true.
RUSSIAN MESSAGE: RUSSIA WANTS TO TURN KHARKIV INTO A "GRAY ZONE" – FAKE?
After Putin's supposedly legitimate re-election as President of the Russian Federation, talk of preparing an invasion of Russian troops towards Kharkiv has become relevant again. This has also been reported by some so-called "liberal" Russian publications.
The material of one of them notes that the Russian military and political leadership is considering plans to capture Kharkiv. The publication refers to sources close to the Kremlin. The interlocutor, close to the Russian presidential administration, believes that the country's top leadership is setting itself "realistic goals" - the capture of Kharkiv and the gradual end of the "SVO" as a result. Putin has already openly said that in order to stop the regular shelling of the Belgorod region, it is necessary to create a "sanitary zone" around it. This region of the Russian Federation borders the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. According to sources of the same "liberal" Russian media, among the "Russian elites", high-ranking officials are convinced that the Russian army is capable of taking Kharkiv, but further advancement into the depths of Ukraine is complicated. "Symbolically, this is also a victory. A city of a million people with a large Russian-speaking population," says one of the interlocutors.
Another Russian publication reported that the Kremlin expects to mobilize 300,000 soldiers in the near future specifically for the operation to capture Kharkiv. Allegedly, according to the Russian authorities' plan, most of the mobilized soldiers will be sent to cover the border in the Belgorod region, and the experienced soldiers who will be released after that will be involved in the "Kharkov operation.".
According to the publication, the Kremlin plans not to storm the Ukrainian city directly, but to lay siege to it. Russian oppositionists have also joined in the "promotion" of the "siege of Kharkiv".
The Kremlin leader's thesis about creating a "sanitary zone" along the Ukrainian-Russian border was later picked up and developed by the Russian state media.
The fact that Russia has decided to make Kharkiv a «gray zone» uninhabitable for civilians is noted in a recent article by The Economist. The publication recalls that the Russian Federation intensified its bombing of Kharkiv in December, around the time when the topic of the delay in American military aid to Ukraine began to appear on the front pages. Since then, the city has come under attack from ballistic missiles, more than at any time since the start of the full-scale invasion. Attacks by enemy drones have become more frequent: they fly faster and higher, and also have carbon-coated wings, which makes them harder to shoot down. However, the attack on March 27 was a turning point, as it was the first time that an aircraft-launched glider bomb, capable of flying tens of kilometers and delivering a devastating blow, was used against Kharkiv.
At the same time, the British magazine emphasizes that "a military operation to occupy Kharkiv would be a difficult task for Russia.".
The last time it tried to do so, in 2022, despite the city being much less well-defended, the invaders failed. Taking the city would have required breaking through Ukrainian defenses and encircling Russia, according to analysts, far from being able to do it.
REACTION OF THE TOP MILITARY-POLITICAL LEADERSHIP OF UKRAINE
At recent meetings of the General Staff, the main issue was Kharkiv, the city's defense from Russian attacks, and the opportunity to strengthen our air defense and electronic warfare in the Kharkiv region.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky in an interview with Ukrinform emphasized, that in the event of an attack by Russian troops on Kharkiv, this would be a fatal step for the Russian troops. According to him, the Ukrainian military is taking all measures to respond to the aggressor's likely attack on Kharkiv, currently equipping fortifications and positions, installing barriers, and planning actions.
The Main Intelligence Directorate denied rumors that the Russians «will attack Kharkiv right now.» According to representative of the GUR Andriy Yusov, this is nothing more than the Russian IPSO. The enemy is trying to sow panic within our country with allegations of an «offensive on Kharkiv».
In an interview with "New Voice"« The head of the Kharkiv OVA, Oleg Synegubov, emphasized that there is currently no active migration from the city of Kharkiv.
«"But we have been observing the activation of the enemy IPSO for several days in a row. And under the guise of official sources of information, reports from state bodies, they even pass it off as official reports from our State Emergency Service regarding forced evacuation, regarding the risks of the occupation of Kharkiv, the seizure of the territory of the Kharkiv region. Therefore, we must also fight this and explain to people that they should use only official sources and only Ukrainian media," said Oleg Synegubov.
THE ENEMY BET ON SPREADING PANIC AMONG THE CIVILIAN POPULATION
The enemy is waging a full-scale hybrid war against Ukraine. For years, the Russian government has invested millions in propaganda, spreading narratives that distort reality. Russian propagandists continue to actively launch information operations aimed at intimidating civilians and discrediting the authorities. This is a deliberate tactic of warfare, honed during past wars unleashed by Russia.
In recent weeks, the Russians have increased the number of attacks on Kharkiv: substations and a thermal power plant have been attacked, as a result of which the city was almost without electricity for several days. Against the background of the attacks, Russian propaganda is trying to increase fear among the city's residents and manipulate them into a forced evacuation. It is obvious that the enemy has relied on spreading panic among Kharkiv residents in order to force them to leave the city.
Despite the enemy's attempts to poison Ukrainians with propaganda and outright lies, our state is showing resilience in countering information threats. The Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security (CSCIS), which operates under the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as the Center for Countering Disinformation (CDC) of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, monitor fakes around the clock, including those regarding the situation in Kharkiv, and promptly refute them. For example, among Russian fakes:
«"The State Emergency Service of Ukraine reports on the possible encirclement of Kharkiv in the near future with recommendations to leave the city.".
This is a fake. There are currently no reasons to evacuate the population from Kharkiv. Any other information is part of the Russian IPSO aimed at intimidating the citizens.
«"In Kharkiv, local authorities are prohibiting people from evacuating ahead of a supposedly planned offensive by the Russian army on the regional center.".
This is a fake. The Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security emphasized that the narrative that Kharkiv residents are being purposefully "put under attack" is an example of Russian cynicism, since exit from the city is open and anyone who wants to can freely leave Kharkiv. The allegations about a Russian offensive on Kharkiv are part of an information and psychological operation by the Russians to sow panic among Kharkiv residents and other citizens, creating a sense of an imminent catastrophe.
«"The Kharkiv leadership is allegedly preparing to flee the city. This is evidenced by the allocation of funds for road repairs in the Lyubotyn and Korotich areas.".
This is a fake. The data about the escape of the city leadership does not correspond to reality and is an information and psychological operation to demoralize Kharkiv residents and sow panic. In fact, the Cabinet of Ministers allocated money for the repair of the main evacuation routes of the region.
«"Rocket strikes will be used against underground schools in Kharkiv, as they are military facilities. Underground schools will be used as command posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they have "similarities" to the command posts that the Americans built during the Cold War.".
This is a fake. Threats to strike Kharkiv's underground schools are part of the enemy's disinformation campaign "propaganda of fear." The enemy's goal is to incite panic in order to force as many people as possible to leave the city.
«"Video. Kharkiv residents are leaving the city en masse due to the lack of light, heating, and other benefits of civilization.".
This is a fake. The video distributed by propagandists dates back to late February 2022: the footage shows wet snow and the words of the video's author can be heard, who says: "We will defeat you [Russians] anyway." The Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security states: regarding the electricity situation, it is indeed difficult in Kharkiv, but it is not critical for the city's residents. The massive Russian shelling of the energy infrastructure on March 22 caused significant damage to it, but the blackout lasted less than a day. Currently, electricity outage schedules are in effect in Kharkiv and the region.
Of course, there are fakes aimed at discrediting the Ukrainian military. We refute them.
«"Soldiers of the 113th Brigade of the Ukrainian Military District in Dergachy, Kharkiv Oblast, beat a woman when she came to receive humanitarian aid. The woman needs surgery.".
This is a fake. The Russians invented this story and used a photo of a resident of Dergach, who is a person with a disability. This is not the first time that enemy propagandists have spread publications of similar content in order to discredit the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In this way, they seek to arouse a negative attitude among the civilian population towards the Ukrainian military. Previously, the enemy also spread disinformation about the poisoning of soldiers of the 113th Regional Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by a Kharkiv resident.
«"Representatives of the Azov national battalion arrived in Kharkiv. The main purpose of their presence there is punitive functions, the fight against pro-Russian residents.".
This is a fake. Its purpose is to discredit the military leadership and create a negative image of Ukrainian defenders.
«"The deputy chief of the 15th border detachment of the State Border Service of Ukraine held a class on making voodoo dolls in one of the Kharkiv schools. This will help to bring damage to the Russians.".
This is a fake. Another sick invention of Russian propagandists who suffer from a lack of imagination. In fact, the youth of the Novobavarsky district of Kharkiv attended a master class called «A Charm for a Warrior» on making a motanka doll. In addition, there were no soldiers at that event at all.
A significant factor in the spread of disinformation is the state propaganda media machine, which, under the guise of «public information,» is engaged in psychological manipulation of the population of the Russian Federation, as well as the population of other countries. For example, today, Russian state media resources openly call to make Kharkiv «unviable» and to infect the city’s residents with cholera and typhus. Information is being disseminated about possible attacks and encirclement, and calls are being made for evacuation.
KHARKIV IS AN IRRITANT PERSONALLY FOR PUTIN
Kharkiv may have both sacred and strategic significance for Putin. One of the largest cities in Ukraine, a city of a million people, is located close to the border with Russia, and it does not yet have enough necessary means of defense.
If we go on a historical excursion, we can recall how in 2014 the Russian authorities pinned great hopes on Odessa and Kharkiv, during the so-called «Russian Spring». Then a series of actions were held in these cities, carried out with the participation of Russian special services and mercenaries in support of the separation of the south and east of Ukraine and the accession of these regions to Russia, the holding of local referendums (not provided for by the Constitution of Ukraine) on the federal structure of Ukraine, granting the Russian language the status of the second state language, etc. The Russian authorities tried to destabilize the domestic political situation in the south-eastern regions of Ukraine and hoped to promote the «Russian world» there through the then leadership of Kharkiv. But this operation was unsuccessful for Putin’s Russia.
It was not possible to take Kharkiv during the long-term fighting during the full-scale invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine from February 24, 2022. It all ended with the Slobozhansk offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The defenders of Kharkiv repulsed the Russians and thwarted all of Putin's plans.
Kharkiv is an irritant to Putin personally. It was in Kharkiv that the now world-famous football refrain about Putin was first sung.
FACT: NO UKRAINIAN CITY WITH A MILLION POPULATION HAS BEEN TAKEN BY MILITARY FORCE
For the enemy, Kharkiv remains a stable defensive line of Ukraine, as well as an outpost of the Ukrainian economy and military industry. And therefore, it obviously remains a target in the plans to occupy our country.
In order to attack Kharkiv, the Russian Federation needs to gather a sufficiently large number of forces and means. According to some estimates, up to 300 thousand Russian soldiers are needed for a full-fledged offensive. In order to accumulate such forces for an attack on Kharkiv, the Kremlin would have to significantly weaken the troops on other fronts and draw in all new recruits. Military science and history say that since the end of World War II, not a single city with a population of more than one million has been taken by military force. If the Russian army needed to lose 40-60 thousand soldiers each plus hundreds of armored vehicles to take Bakhmut and Avdiivka, then what kind of offensive on a broad front can we talk about. From October last year to March this year, until the end of the Avdiivka operation, the losses of Russian soldiers were about 140 thousand killed and wounded.
The occupation of Kharkiv by Russia in the foreseeable future is extremely unlikely, but the strikes on the city will continue. During the shelling, the enemy returned to his favorite terrorist tactics of the spring and summer of 2022. The shelling takes place in two waves. The second is fragmentation, 15-20 minutes later, targeting the same targets as the first, to cover medics and rescuers. So, if you are near the arrival zone, the next arrival may not be long in coming. In no case do not stand on the street near the arrival point. This can save lives.
In the coming months, Russia is assigning Kharkiv a different role in its plans. Namely, as a catalyst for a humanitarian crisis. Putin's theses about the "sanitary zone" will serve as an explanation for the atrocities for the West.
The strikes from Russia, which are openly terrorist in nature, are intended to sow panic, demoralize, and actually create the image that Russian propaganda is counting on: how Kharkiv residents are urgently leaving the city, how everyone is afraid of the capture of Kharkiv. Even before the possible revival of the offensive in the summer, the enemy seeks to create an image as if this offensive has already begun and that Kharkiv is already under immediate threat. For this purpose, the media space is being "warmed up".
It is now extremely important to observe information hygiene and not respond to Russian IPSOs that are aimed at creating panic. After all, in the future, Russia will continue to intensify propaganda and increase information pressure on Ukrainian citizens, especially in frontline territories.
According to materials from a group of experts from the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security and the Institute of Public Communications:
Volodymyr Khodakivskyi,
Bohdany Korniychuk,
Lesia Chervinska.